Population and Pandemic

Epidemiologists have been warning of a coronavirus outbreak for years. Lawrence Brilliant, an American epidemiologist who helped eradicate smallpox, warned about the inevitability of a global pandemic in a now-famous 2006 TED Talk,² and then in 2015, Bill Gates specifically warned us in another Ted talk that a pandemic was coming³ and the US and other countries were not prepared. “If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it’s most likely to be a highly infectious virus rather than a war,” Gates said. “Not missiles, but microbes.” You can’t say we weren’t warned! Three influenza pandemics have occurred during the twentieth-century (1918, 1957, and 1968), and before that there is evidence of prehistoric epidemics dating as far back as 3000 BC.

So, what is the connection between population and pandemics? "There's a strong correlation between the risk of pandemic and human population density. We've done the math and we've proved it," said Dr. Peter Daszak, a disease ecologist and the president of EcoHealth Alliance, who examined the link in a 2008 study published in the journal Nature.⁴

Epidemics and plagues are part of the history of humanity, sometimes marking the end of entire civilizations. It is likely that many of the plagues mentioned in the Old Testament came about when humans congregated closely enough to sustain epidemics of newly emerging pathogens and parasites. Dense population has been seen to be a critical factor in determining whether a pathogen can become established. The influx of people into the industrial cities of Europe during the nineteenth century was most likely a factor that increased the rates of transmission of directly transmitted diseases.

There are, of course, many factors that influence the course of epidemics, including poverty, malnutrition, limited access to clean water, and adequate health care. In the case of Native Americans and other indigenous peoples, there was a complete lack of previous exposure, thus no developed resistance to diseases brought in to their communities during colonization. In today’s world, we have the added ease and accessibility of long-distance travel, making the transmission and spread of disease more difficult to contain, and allowing for rapid dispersal of disease to all parts of the world as we are now seeing with the COVID-19 virus, a zoonotic disease (originating from wildlife).⁵ As people continue to encroach and disrupt wildlife habitats, the likelihood of pathogens (virus, bacteria, fungi, and parasites) passing between animals and people increases. Experts estimate that three out of four new diseases originate in animals.

Looking at the planet as a living organism, I cannot help but see the virulent virus that is currently attacking our species as a symbol of the antibodies of the planet’s immune system fighting off the cancer (an abnormal growth of cells which tend to proliferate in an uncontrolled way) of humanity. In the same way that the COVID-19 pandemic is demanding that we alter our everyday habits, expectations, and way of life to ensure our survival, the overpopulation pandemic is demanding that we alter our beliefs, assumptions, and practices to ensure the survival of life on planet Earth.